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About Take The Money
Rather than a crackdown across the board, what emerged was a more regulated renewal framework.
Of the KSA’s update, Fuchs said: “If you [as an operator] have a clean sheet, there are some hoops, but for various modules you can just send a declaration which states that you’re compliant.”
He emphasised the new system would make burdens less demanding than before, but the new ‘exit plan’ requirement and sharper duty‑of‑care definitions do bring some added complexity.
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If Bernstein’s $10 trillion prediction market turnover forecast is realized or exceeded, it’d likely prove significant in revenue terms because the research firm previously estimated that $1 trillion in yearly activity could generate as much as $10.8 billion in revenue for operators.
As has been widely documented, sports event contracts are currently the lifeblood of the prediction market industry, but Bernstein notes that won’t be the case on a permanent basis. In fact, the research firm estimates that sports derivatives’ share of industry volume will decline to 35% in 2035, indicating that the aforementioned volume increase will be led by other categories.
The research firm estimates that by 2035, financial derivatives, including event contracts linked to commodities, cryptocurrencies and stocks, will account for 49% of turnover on yes/no exchanges, topping sports to become the largest volume driver. The research firm sees event contracts tied to key performance indicators (KPIs) leading the charge.
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But as mentioned earlier, this is not the first time Grant has been caught in a similar legal tangle with Star Casino, which accused the man of using a strategy known as “edge sorting,” which is essentially discovering an imperfection in the make of the cards used in a table game.
By leaning into that imperfection, players may then exploit the knowledge and tip the house edge in their favor. Most casinos and courts around the world consider this to be cheating.
However, the judgment in that specific case against Star Casino ruled that Grant was a self-professed advantage player, and that a casino where the staff was competent and the games were operated correctly had nothing to worry about.