Return Of The Green Knight

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Lane Kiffin will face Ole Miss, his former team, for the first time since he was named LSU head coach last November. For Kiffin’s return to Oxford, the Tigers are 59% favourites at Kalshi.

The announcement came on the same week that Indian Gaming Association leaders met with CFTC Chair Michael Selig. The meetings centred on prediction market-related discussions that IGA Chair David Bean deemed mostly unproductive. On Wednesday, the US Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit reversed a lower court’s decision in Blue Lake Rancheria vs Kalshi.

Per the ruling, the Ninth Circuit determined that Kalshi’s sports event contracts amount to unauthorised gaming under the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act (IGRA) when accessed on tribal land.

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The operational infrastructure available to these new firms, however, remains underdeveloped. Gonzalez contrasts prediction markets with equities, where trading businesses can use prime brokers, clearinghouses and standardised systems such as FIX.

“When it comes to prediction markets, none of that exists,” he said. “Everyone that’s building in the prediction market space mostly starts from ground zero.”

Platforms were generally constructed for one person operating one account, rather than trading organisations requiring separate permissions and controls. According to Gonzalez, some teams still share a single login.

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MGM Resorts International’s investment case is supported by Las Vegas, regional casinos, property assets and its 50% interest in BetMGM. Its own share price has been on a different journey to its online pureplay peers, having increased by 5% in a year, to $37.81 on 18 September.

“MGM offers a more diversified investment case, with BetMGM, regional gaming and Las Vegas operations reducing reliance on online sports betting alone,” says Beynon. Robinson makes the same point. “It is a Las Vegas and Macau property business with a betting JV attached, and that is precisely why it has held up.”

Entain sits somewhere between the two models. It has significant international scale and a valuable stake in BetMGM, but also more debt and greater exposure to UK taxation, as well as general regulatory turbulance across Europe.